BaaS evolution: from experiment to standard distribution
By 2030 BaaS established, by 2040 dominant distribution channel. Banks without BaaS — wholesale-only utilities.
Discuss Your ChallengeBaaS trajectory
2026: BaaS experimental. Major UZ banks pilot programs with a few partners. Regulatory ambiguous.
2030: BaaS established. Top-tier banks have production programs with 5-20 partners. Revenue stream meaningful. Regulator framework clear.
2035: BaaS dominant for new acquisitions. >40% of new customers through partner channels. Direct acquisition expensive.
2040: Banks split into two camps:
- Direct-relationship (consumer brand, premium services).
- Wholesale-only (BaaS infrastructure providers).
Mid-tier banks without strategy — squeezed.
What changes for the bank
Customer acquisition cost falls.
Brand visibility falls — partner brand dominates.
Margin shifts. BaaS — high-margin (software economics) vs traditional (rate-margin economics).
Regulatory complexity grows. Partner-related risk on the bank.
Tech investment requirement high. APIs, sandboxes, monitoring, partner success.
Three strategic positions
Premium consumer-facing. Direct relationship, high-touch advisory, less BaaS.
Hybrid. Direct + selective BaaS partnerships.
Wholesale BaaS specialist. Few partners, deep integration, infrastructure economics.
What operators must do now
Define position on the 2040 horizon.
Build API platform foundational capabilities.
Engage regulator for framework clarity.
Identify priority partners.
Develop talent for BaaS operations.
Related
- /en/solutions/banking-embedded-finance-platform/ — BaaS solution
- /en/decisions/banking-baas-vs-direct/ — BaaS decision
- /en/architecture/banking-partner-api-platform/ — partner API
- /en/insights/future-banking-2040/ — 2040
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