Future of banks 2040: bank as infrastructure utility
Horizon 2040. banking-as-infrastructure for embedded finance, CBDC mature, AI agents in core decisioning, climate mandates rewriting balance sheets.
Discuss Your ChallengeWhat changes by 2040
This is the “bank’s role in the economy has changed” horizon.
Banking as infrastructure. Most consumer interactions with finance happen via embedded layer (apps, retailers, marketplaces, telecom). Standalone banking apps shrink. Bank brand visible at back-end.
CBDC mature. Digital som integrated into payments. Central bank settles instantly. Banks’ role in money creation reduced — focus shifts to credit and services.
AI agents in core decisioning. Credit, fraud, AML decisions predominantly automated with human override for exceptions. Regulator readiness explicitly addressed.
BaaS dominant distribution. >50% of new customer acquisitions through partner channels.
Climate mandates rewriting balance sheets. ESG reporting comprehensive, climate stress tests routine, lending in high-carbon sectors restricted.
Open banking established. PSD2-equivalent UZ framework mature. Customer data ownership respected.
Quantum-secure crypto migration completing. RSA / ECC algorithms phased out from 2030-2040.
Branches: predominantly advisory hubs. Transaction-heavy branches decommissioned.
Workforce transformation. Smaller workforce, mostly product / data / risk specialists. Operations largely automated.
Universal credit framework. Some markets have basic credit utility — minimum credit access guaranteed.
What is under question
Will hyperscalers capture the identity layer? Apple Pay / Google Wallet competing with bank-owned identity.
Will regulators handle the technology pace? Or fall behind?
Will climate-driven repricing cause systemic stress?
Will AI in decisioning create accountability gaps?
What will go away
Card-based payments dominant model.
Standalone bookkeeping software (integrated into platforms).
Most teller / cashier roles.
Quarterly product cycles — replaced by continuous deployment.
Related
- /en/insights/future-banking-2030/ — 2030
- /en/insights/future-banking-2050/ — 2050
- /en/insights/future-banking-cbdc/ — CBDC deep-dive
- /en/insights/future-banking-baas-evolution/ — BaaS evolution
What else is worth exploring
Topics from the same area we usually explore together
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