Future of telecom 2040: operator as infrastructure utility

What changes by 2040

This is the “operator’s role in the economy has changed” horizon. Connectivity itself becomes commodity, value migrates up the stack.

Connectivity — utility. ARPU for pure connectivity approaches marginal cost. Operators compete not on tariffs but on services-around-tariff. Already happening in Northern Europe and Japan.

Operator as identity utility. By 2040 in UZ “verified by operator” — standard auth method for most digital services. Operator earns per-verification fee. A regulatory framework may emerge that makes the identity layer a regulated utility — something between a bank and a post office.

Embedded everything. Mobile data disappears as a separate purchase. Included in app subscription, device, auto, IoT service. The customer does not buy “traffic”, they buy a working service.

Network sharing — norm. Active sharing between operators in most markets. Differentiation on the UX stack, not on network. RAN-as-a-service from cloud vendors available.

AI agents for customer self-service. Not today’s chatbots, but agentic interfaces that resolve cases end-to-end across several systems. Agent talks to billing, network, partners on behalf of the customer. Contact centre shrinks 70-80%.

Data utility. Anonymised aggregate insights operator sells through clean rooms — to banks, retailers, municipalities. By 2040 this is a distinct revenue stream comparable to traditional telco services.

B2B IoT and private 5G/6G — major B2B revenue. Logistics, manufacturing, healthcare networks under operator-as-a-platform.

Regulatory consolidation. Telecom regulators gradually merge with digital regulators. Operator has a dialogue with one agency on digital infrastructure, identity, content, financial cross-cuts.

Talent profile shifts. Network protocol engineers → product/data/UX engineers. A significant chunk of operations is contracted from cloud / managed services.

What is under question by 2040

Will operators retain identity utility position, or will hyperscalers (Apple, Google) take it? This is a political question as much as technical.

Will fintech embedding keep growing, or will regulation fragment markets back?

Quantum-secure networking — may require crypto migration by 2035-2040.

What will go away

Plain voice tariffs. Voice will be free utility inside app subscriptions.

Standalone SMS. WhatsApp-style messaging dominates, SMS used only for transactional OTP (which also migrate to app push).

Physical brand stores — significantly reduced. Service through digital + small flagship locations.

Big BSS suites as we know them — replaced by cloud-native modular components.

Related

• /en/insights/future-telecom-2030/ — 2030 horizon
• /en/insights/future-telecom-2050/ — 2050 horizon
• /en/insights/future-telecom-network-as-a-service/ — NaaS
• /en/insights/future-telecom-data-utility/ — data utility